Économie
US inflation remains stuck at 3% despite tension with Iran
US inflation refuses to fall and remains at 3%. A key signal for the Fed as geopolitical tensions intensify with Iran.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 2 mois
Économie
Economy: Fed, ECB, inflation and macro decoded
Macroeconomics is the main engine driving all financial markets: forex, equities, bonds, commodities and crypto. Understanding central bank decisions (Fed in the US, ECB in Europe, BoJ in Japan, BoE in the UK) and major data releases (CPI inflation, NFP jobs, GDP, PMI) is essential to anticipate trends and size exposure correctly.
Since 2022, the global monetary cycle has been dominated by fighting post-Covid and post-Ukraine war inflation: rapid hikes in 2022-2023 (Fed at 5.5%, ECB at 4%), then an easing cycle starting 2024-2025 as disinflation consolidated. 2026 shapes up as a pivotal year for central bank responses to economic slowdown and a new wave of US tariffs.
ActuTrading Economy covers monetary policy decisions (FOMC, ECB Governing Council), US and European macro releases (NFP, CPI, PCE, Ifo, PMI, ZEW), sovereign debt issues, and geopolitical impact on global trade balances.
Deep dives in this section
France inflation
CPI, INSEE, purchasing power, ECB impact: French inflation decoded.
Read →Fed decisions
FOMC, dot plot, Fed funds rate, Powell guidance and market effects.
Read →ECB decisions
Deposit rate, Lagarde, 2% inflation target, sovereign stress.
Read →Bank of Japan (BoJ)
25 years of dovish policy, NIRP exit, Kazuo Ueda and the yen.
Read →Bank of England (BoE)
9-member MPC, Andrew Bailey, vote transparency, sterling pound.
Read →Swiss National Bank (SNB)
Frankenshock January 15, 2015, CHF safe-haven, Martin Schlegel.
Read →Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Michele Bullock, AUD commodity currency, China dependence.
Read →Latest economy: fed, ecb, inflation and macro decoded news
54 articles
Économie
ECB ready to raise rates even if inflation expected to be temporary
Lagarde confirms that the European Central Bank could raise interest rates, even if the expected rise in prices is not expected to last. A strong signal for the euro and bond markets.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 2 mois
Économie
The Strait of Hormuz blocked: why a toll is preferable to oil chaos
Patrick Pouyanné calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even for ransom. A fifth of the world's oil is blocked. Three months before the crisis.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 2 mois
Économie
European stock markets plunge on Middle East tensions
Paris, London and Frankfurt fell back at the start of the session. The failure of negotiations between Washington and Teheran has triggered a wave of risk aversion on the Old Continent.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 2 mois
Économie
The Fed maintains rates and pushes back hopes of a rate cut in 2026
The Federal Reserve refuses to budge on rates. Traders definitively bury the hypothesis of a rate cut before 2027. A strong signal that reshapes market expectations.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 2 mois
Économie
Five million jobs threatened by AI in France in the next two to five years
A new study reveals that AI is now threatening skilled and cognitive tasks. Five million French people could see their jobs jeopardized over the next two to five years.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Économie
Middle East crisis reshapes global trade flows and weakens stock markets
As a fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States enters its 4th day, world stock markets move cautiously forward. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, threatening global energy supplies.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Économie
The Fed maintains rates in the face of the oil crisis and labor market difficulties
The US Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at its March meeting. Weak employment signals and soaring energy prices are weighing on the decision.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Économie
France can avoid the worst thanks to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
An agreement between Iran and the United States boosts the French economy. OFCE forecasts growth of 0.8% in 2026 if energy prices return to normal.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Économie
Fuel: French government faces crisis, unions disappointed
The French government refuses to make a decision on fuel prices. The unions were calling for emergency measures, but only vague promises.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Économie
Iran threatens desalination plants Gulf geopolitical tensions
Extreme tension in the Middle East: Teheran targets desalination plants vital to Gulf economies. A major structural risk for the region.
Rédaction ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Économie
Oil at $110: Trump shakes up the markets 🛢️
Oil flirts with $110 a barrel amid Trump's trade threats and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz - gold rallies, inflation threatens to return to haunt central banks.
ActuTradingil y a 3 mois
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fed exactly?+
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the US central bank, in charge of monetary policy (rates, balance sheet) and banking supervision. Its decisions are made by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) at 8 meetings per year. Its dual mandate: price stability (~2% inflation) and full employment.
How does the ECB influence European rates?+
The ECB sets the deposit rate (at which European banks can deposit excess reserves), which anchors all market rate chains: Euribor, sovereign rates (OAT for France, Bund for Germany), mortgage rates, corporate credit. It meets 8 times a year in Frankfurt.
How to read the US CPI?+
CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures US inflation. Two figures to watch: headline CPI (all components, includes energy and food) and core CPI (excluding energy/food, more stable). Compare vs consensus: if core CPI > consensus, market prices hawkish Fed, dollar up, stocks down.
What's NFP and why does it matter?+
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) is the monthly US jobs report released the first Friday of each month. Three figures: jobs created (vs consensus), unemployment rate, hourly wages. It's the most market-moving macro release: EUR/USD can move 50-100 pips within a minute of release.
How do you know if we're in a recession?+
Academic definition: 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Official US definition: the NBER declares recessions retrospectively combining employment, industrial production, retail sales, real income. Leading indicators to watch: yield curve inversion (10y - 2y), PMI < 50, rising unemployment.