The Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed, and the head of TotalEnergies doesn't mince his words: better to pay a toll than let chaos ensue. 20% of the world's oil and gas normally passes through this strategic corridor. Today, it's asphyxiation.
TotalEnergies.
🔍 What's going on?
The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed exports since the start of the war in the Middle East. Only a few ships linked to Tehran are still passing through. On Monday April 13, President Trump added a layer by imposing additional sanctions on Iranian ports, further tightening the noose on oil market liquidity.
Patrick Pouyanné, in Washington for the IMF and World Bank meetings, was blunt: this sea passage must be reopened, even if it means paying compensation. Iran is demanding a dollar per barrel - legally contestable, according to the TotalEnergies boss, but the real problem is the threat to traffic itself.
Patrick Pouyanné was blunt: the sea passage must be reopened, even if it means paying compensation.
💡 Why does it matter?
You have to understand the time issue: the West has around three months' worth of oil stocks to cushion the crisis. After that, if the blockade persists, kerosene for planes and diesel for transport will be rationed. A fuel shortage brings the real economy to a halt.
.Oil volatility worsens with every announcement. Additional US sanctions have already accentuated the price rally seen on Monday. For traders, it's a signal: geopolitical risk weighs heavily on global supply chains.
Oil volatility worsens with every announcement.
📊 Our opinion
We're bearish on the ability to resolve this blockage quickly. Why? Because Pouyanné himself recognizes that the real problem isn't a negotiable tariff - it's the political threat. We could live with a dollar a barrel. But Iran doesn't use this strait as a commercial tool, it's a negotiating weapon. The three months of Western stockpiles are the countdown clock ticking.
.✅ To remember
- 20% of the world's oil blocked at the Strait of Hormuz.
- The West has three months before the real shortage.
- A toll is better than a prolonged blockade according to TotalEnergies.
What do you think?Do you think the three months of stocks are enough to negotiate an exit, or should we expect prices to escalate in the short term?
🔎 Also to be read
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