A 15-day ceasefire between Iran and the United States has revitalized the markets. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased the energy tensions that had been blocking the economic machine since February 28. For France, it's an unexpected breath of fresh air. 🔋
🔍 What's going on?
The energy shock that had been tightening the noose for two months is finally finding a way out. The CAC 40 was up nearly 5% on Wednesday April 8, while French 10-year bonds were financing at 3.5%. These figures reflect the market's optimism: the geopolitical crisis is no longer an existential threat to the hexagonal economy.
OFCE, the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures, publishes its central scenario for 2026-2027. In this table, oil gradually falls from an average of $91 per barrel in the second quarter to $70. Gas follows the same downward logic, from a peak of 50 euros before returning to 36 euros.
💡 Why does it matter?
You see, energy is the skeleton of any economy. When oil and gas explode, everything else slows down: production drops, inflation rises, consumers spend less. France, a net importer of energy, bears the brunt of these shocks. The crisis of February-April 2026 was a direct threat to French growth.
.With the expected return to normal, OFCE is forecasting growth of 0.8% for 2026. This figure may seem modest, but it represents the difference between an economy moving forward and painful stagnation. For the markets, it's a signal that the doomsday scenario has been avoided.
📊 Our opinion
We're clearly bullish on this deal. Not that we're naive about the geopolitics of the Middle East - a 15-day ceasefire remains fragile - but the market has reason to breathe. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is changing the global energy landscape. If this agreement holds for a few weeks, prices will continue to fall, and the French economy will go up with it.
Beware: we need to watch for the slightest sign of a relapse. A return to tension would change everything. But for the moment, the trend is towards a thaw. The teams at the Ministry of the Economy are going to breathe a sigh of relief.
Watch out for any signs of a relapse.
✅ To remember
- Iran-US agreement revives the Strait of Hormuz and eases energy tensions
- Oil at $91 in Q2 then towards $70; gas follows the same downward trajectory
- French growth target 0.8% in 2026 if central scenario confirmed
- CAC 40 jumps 5%, bonds refinance at 3.5%: markets believe
- Fragile ceasefire = risk: any change to energy trends
What about you?Do you think this agreement will hold long enough for energy to really stabilize? Or are you still cautious about geopolitical reversals?
🔎 Also to be read
To go further, find all our Economy analyses on ActuTrading Economy 📈
