Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are putting pressure on energy prices 🔥. Oil is approaching $110 a barrel, boosted by Donald Trump's trade threats and fears around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are holding their breath, and the question is starting to come up everywhere: are we reliving 2022?
🔍 What's going on?
Trump's statements on trade sanctions are raising fears of escalation in the Middle East. And the sore spot is always the same: the Strait of Hormuz, that strategic passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which some 20% of the world's oil and gas production transits. If traffic is seriously disrupted, the entire global economy suffers.
The result on the markets: oil rises, and investors take refuge in safe havens. Gold climbs gently to $4,619.80 (+0.19% over 24h), confirming its role as a classic safe-haven. EUR/USD retreats slightly to 1.1517, reflecting the appetite for the US dollar whenever there's talk of geopolitical uncertainty. In short, all the Pavlovian reflexes of the market in "risk-off" mode are there.
💡 Why does it matter?
You have to understand what's really at stake. Oil affects every price: petrol, transport, electricity, even your supermarket purchases. If the barrel rises too high and stays high for too long, inflation mechanically goes up. This is bad for your purchasing power, and a real nightmare for central banks who thought they were done with the subject.
The ECB and the Fed had both begun to prepare the ground for rate cuts. With a barrel at $110, this trajectory becomes much more complicated. We could very quickly find ourselves in the same trap as in 2022: energy-induced inflation forcing central bankers to get tougher, while growth slows. This is exactly the stagflation scenario that nobody wants to see.
📊 Our view
Position: cautious on oil at these levels, and downright bullish on gold as long as the situation remains tense. Buying Brent at $110 and betting on a continuation of the rise is playable, but asymmetrical on the wrong side - the slightest sign of de-escalation and you take $8-10 in the figure in two sessions.
On gold on the other hand, the timing is clean. Safe havens have every reason to keep rising until the markets know which way the situation in the Middle East is going to turn. And historically, gold likes periods when central banks find themselves trapped between inflation and sluggish growth.
For the rest, volatility is your enemy right now. Diversify, save cash, don't put all your eggs in one basket, and above all avoid strong directional bets on purely geopolitical catalysts. When a market moves on Trump's tweets, it's rarely the right time to get heroic.
✅ To remember
Oil near $110 a barrel on Trump's trade threats
The Strait of Hormuz remains the weak spot: 20% of world oil trade transits through it
Gold safe-haven at $4,619.80, EUR/USD retreats to 1,1517
Inflationary risk returns to haunt ECB and Fed
Stagflation scenario to watch if tensions take hold
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