A barely four-day ceasefire between Iran and the United States, negotiations expected in Pakistan: this is the backdrop to a tense global economic week. 🌍 Stock markets have risen since the start of the week, but on Friday they were cautious, anticipating the decisive talks that must determine the future of the regional conflict.
🔍 What's going on?
Wall Street posted mixed signals on Friday: the Dow Jones was down 0.56%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.35% and the S&P 500 gave up 0.12%. In Europe, caution was the order of the day, with London and Frankfurt virtually unchanged. Only Paris advanced 0.17%, and Milan pulled ahead with +0.59%.
The real topic: the Strait of Hormuz. This vital shipping lane for world trade has remained largely blocked by Iran since February 28. Since the truce, only seven oil tankers and nine bulk carriers have passed through this critical passage. Hundreds of ships remain blocked. Donald Trump assured us on Friday that the strait would "soon be open", but the facts speak otherwise for now.
💡 Why does it matter?
Crude falters under geopolitical tension. Brent is trading around $95 a barrel for June delivery, and WTI is around the same price in May. These levels reflect some stabilization, but it's fragile. If negotiations fail and the strait closes, you can expect a sharp rise in energy prices and a shockwave through the equity markets.
Europe is suffering particularly badly.
Europe is particularly suffering: the continent's airports association warns of a risk of "systemic shortages" of kerosene if shipping does not restart. Supply chains remain under strain, and this is weighing on investor confidence.
Europe is particularly hard hit.
📊 Our opinion
We remain cautious and bearish in the short term. True, the ceasefire exists, but it hangs by a thread. Negotiations in Pakistan are decisive, and the fact that stock markets ended the week on a defensive note says it all: traders don't trust the current stability. The Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed, is the sword of Damocles hanging over the markets. If this passage really opens up, we can imagine a bullish recovery. But for now, we're playing it safe and keeping an eye on live headlines from the negotiations.
✅ To remember
- Fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, decisive negotiations in Pakistan this week.
- Strait of Hormuz largely blocked: 300+ ships detained, energy supplies at risk.
- Crude stable around $95 a barrel, but a rebound in tensions could ignite prices quickly.
What do you think?Do you trust these negotiations to restore the flow of trade, or are you preparing your defensive positions in prevention of further escalation?
🔎 Also to be read
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