Bitcoin is surging back toward $76,500 after hitting a low in early May. Trading volumes are skyrocketing, social media is abuzz with talk of a recovery, and the derivatives market is showing renewed optimism. Déjà vu. 📉
🔍 What’s happening?
BTC is currently testing $76,940 at the time of writing, marking a nearly 8% rally in just a few days. Short positions are being liquidated en masse, long positions are flooding leveraged trading platforms, and retail sentiment is turning euphoric again.
Except that several technical indicators aren’t following suit. Spot volumes remain low compared to March’s peaks. The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence. And most importantly, large on-chain wallets have been quietly distributing for the past three weeks.
💡 Why does this matter?
Because we’ve already seen this scenario in 2021, in 2019, and each time it was followed by a severe correction. A sharp technical rebound after a drop attracts latecomers, creates a FOMO spike, then crashes as whales take profits. The timing is suspicious: the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain tepid, and the macro context doesn’t justify this sudden euphoria.
For the French trader, this is the dangerous moment when you feel compelled to jump in for fear of missing the boat. But the stats show that 70% of rapid rebounds following a correction of 15% or more end up being false starts.
📊 Our take
We’re not taking the bait. This rally reeks of a bull trap.
Macro fundamentals do not support a sustainable recovery here. The Fed is keeping rates high, EUR/USD remains under pressure at 1.16, and institutional inflows into BTC have been in sharp decline since April according to on-chain data. The big players are selling on strength, as usual. On the European regulatory front, the lack of clarity on MiCA 2 continues to cool French and German institutional investors, which structurally limits demand. Until $80,000 is decisively broken with conviction and volume, we remain in a disguised bearish range.
We’re more likely to see a retest of $72,000 by June. For French traders: wait for a confirmed breakout above $82,000 with volume, or get ready to short the pullback if you’re comfortable with derivatives. No FOMO here.
✅ Key Takeaway
- Bitcoin tests $76,940 after a quick 8% rebound
- Spot volumes remain low and whales are quietly distributing
- The restrictive Fed macro environment does not support a sustainable recovery
- High risk of a bull trap before a retest of $72,000
- Wait for a confirmed breakout above $82,000 with volume before entering
What do you think? Do you believe in this rebound, or are you waiting for the next leg of the downtrend to take a position?
🔎 See also
For more insights, check out all our crypto analyses on ActuTrading Crypto 📈
Source: CoinTelegraph, on-chain data
