The halving is an event coded into the Bitcoin protocol that cuts miner rewards in half for each validated block. It occurs every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every 4 years.
Bitcoin halving history:
- 2009 (genesis): 50 BTC per block
- November 2012: 50 → 25 BTC
- July 2016: 25 → 12.5 BTC
- May 2020: 12.5 → 6.25 BTC
- April 2024: 6.25 → 3.125 BTC
- ~2028 (projected): 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
The last halving will occur around 2140, when the reward becomes near-zero and all 21 million BTC are mined. After that, miners earn only transaction fees.
Economic impact: the halving mechanically halves the new supply of Bitcoins. At constant demand, it's a deflationary supply shock. Historically, the 12-18 months following each halving have coincided with major bull runs:
- 2012 halving → BTC from $12 to $1,200 in 2013 (×100)
- 2016 halving → BTC from $650 to $20,000 in 2017 (×30)
- 2020 halving → BTC from $8,700 to $69,000 in 2021 (×8)
- 2024 halving → BTC from $64,000 to over $100,000 in 2025-2026
Analysis limits: halvings don't guarantee a rally. The correlation may weaken as the market matures, institutions arrive, and supply shocks represent a smaller share of total cap. But the narrative effect remains powerful.