The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls, US non-farm employment report) is released every 1st Friday of the month at 8:30 AM ET by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It's the most watched event on the global economic calendar, with 50-200-pip moves on EUR/USD in minutes.
Simultaneous indicators:
- NFP: number of jobs created (excluding agriculture) in the previous month
- Unemployment rate (U-3): percentage of labor force unemployed
- Average Hourly Earnings: wage inflation indicator crucial for the Fed
- Participation rate
Why it's so critical:
- Employment is one of the Fed's two mandates (with inflation) → direct influence on rate decisions
- Strong NFP = robust economy = more hawkish Fed = stronger USD + bearish stocks
- Weak NFP = slowing economy = more dovish Fed = weaker USD + bullish stocks
- The gap vs analyst consensus matters more than the absolute value: NFP expected at 200k, prints at 350k = violent move in favor of USD
NFP trading strategies:
- Before: close open positions 30 min before to avoid slippage
- During: don't trade (spread ×10, massive slippage). Pros stay out or wait
- After: wait 15-30 min for volatility to cool, then trade the continuation or reversal based on breakout direction
Important revisions: BLS systematically revises NFPs from the previous 2 months. A -100k revision can offset a positive current figure. Always check these revisions, often ignored by retail.