Gunshots Saturday evening at the Washington Hilton during the annual White House Correspondents' Dinner. Donald Trump evacuated urgently. And shortly after, cancellation of his envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff's trip to Islamabad to negotiate with Iran. Unprecedented. 🚨
🔍 What's happening?
An armed man attempted Saturday evening to enter the building where the correspondents' dinner was being held. The gunfire forced security services to evacuate the U.S. president urgently. Trump then held a press conference from the White House to confirm he would not back down from the war against Iran.
The momentum is brutal. American envoys were supposed to meet with the Iranian government in Islamabad. These talks are canceled. But Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who had already traveled to Oman to lay the groundwork, is still expected this Sunday in Pakistan. He met with Oman's Sultan, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, in Muscat to discuss mediation efforts.
💡 Why does it matter?
For the markets, this escalation maintains the geopolitical risk premium on safe-haven assets and energy. Each additional Middle East tension pushes back the horizon for a de-escalation. Traders betting on a rapid easing after the first dialogue signals need to reconsider their strategy.
On the ground, Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military Saturday evening to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon with force, citing repeated ceasefire violations. In Gaza, strikes killed at least four Palestinians Sunday according to local aid workers. The Israeli military says it has struck Hamas militants since Friday.
📊 Our take
For us, the verdict is clear. Trump will give nothing on Iran unless he achieves a decisive symbolic or military victory.
The cancellation of talks after the Washington incident shows that the White House now ties its domestic security to its Middle East posture. That seriously complicates any mediation attempt. The fact that Iran maintains its diplomatic presence through Araghchi indicates that Tehran still seeks a way out of the crisis, but Washington has shut the door for now. On the European side, the ECB and regulators are closely monitoring the impact on energy prices. A prolonged oil spike would complicate the euro zone's disinflation trajectory.
We expect volatility to remain high on USD/JPY and USD/CHF pairs in the coming days. For the French trader: stay cautious on risky long positions and monitor Fed statements at week's end. If Powell mentions an inflationary impact from the conflict, the dollar could strengthen sharply.
✅ Key takeaways
- Trump evacuated after gunfire in Washington Saturday evening
- U.S./Iran talks canceled, military pressure maintained
- Netanyahu orders strikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah
- Volatility expected on safe-haven currencies and energy assets
What do you think? Is Trump playing hardball for electoral reasons or is he really aiming for a regime change in Tehran?
🔎 Also read
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Source: White House, Iranian Foreign Ministry, AFP, Reuters
