TotalEnergies is releasing its first quarter 2026 results this Wednesday, and everything points to a major surprise. The group already warned in mid-April that it expected strong growth in its hydrocarbon activities, driven by soaring prices since the Iran war. The highest level since 2022. 🛢️
🔍 What's happening?
The French oil giant is presenting its figures this Wednesday in an explosive market context. Since February 28, the date of the American-Israeli offensive against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked by Tehran. This strategic corridor represents 20% of global crude oil.
Result: a sharp drop in supply and a surge in prices that directly benefits oil companies. TotalEnergies is losing 15% of its global gas and oil production in the Gulf region, roughly 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. But the group is more than making up for it thanks to new projects in Brazil and Libya, sold at record prices.
💡 Why does it matter?
BP kicked things off Tuesday with net profit that quintupled year-over-year, rising from $687 million to $3.8 billion. The signal is clear: Western oil majors are fully benefiting from Middle Eastern chaos. TotalEnergies' trading teams likely did even better on crude and LNG trading in March.
This context is reigniting political debate in Europe. Five countries (Spain, Austria, Germany, Italy, Portugal) are demanding a windfall tax on energy superprofits, like in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu stated on April 8 in the Senate that he has no objection in principle to this idea.
📊 Our take
For us, the verdict is clear. TotalEnergies will post spectacular figures.
The group has all the cards: production ramping up on ultra-profitable projects, crude and gas prices at their highest, and trading teams excelling in volatility. Middle East losses are more than offset by new Brazilian and Libyan barrels valued at premium prices. We expect trading activities to show very strong performance, as announced in the investor note in mid-April. Momentum is fully in the French giant's favor, capitalizing on a tight market where every barrel counts. The threat of a windfall tax looms, certainly, but remains at the political debate stage with no clear timeline.
We see TotalEnergies continuing this momentum as long as the Middle East situation remains blocked. For the French trader: the stock remains attractive in the short term, but keep a close eye on political announcements regarding European taxation, particularly from the AMF and the French Finance Ministry.
✅ Key takeaways
- TotalEnergies releases its results this Wednesday, April 29
- Strong growth expected thanks to the hydrocarbon surge
- BP quintupled its net profit for the quarter
- Debate reignited over windfall tax in Europe
- Production offset by Brazil and Libya despite Gulf losses
What do you think? Should oil companies be taxed on these windfall profits or is it just how the market works?
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Source: TotalEnergies press release, BP results, Sébastien Lecornu statement
