The Fed is meeting this Thursday to announce its April interest rate decision. This is the final meeting chaired by Jerome Powell, who has held the position since 2018. The markets overwhelmingly expect rates to remain unchanged. 📊
🔍 What’s happening?
The Fed’s monetary policy committee (FOMC) will announce its decision this afternoon. According to financial media, almost no one expects a change. The consensus is clear: rates will remain unchanged.
This meeting marks a symbolic turning point. Jerome Powell, who has led the Fed for eight years, will hold his final press conference as chair. His successor is expected to be named in the coming weeks, but no official date has been announced.
💡 Why does this matter?
For those of you trading the dollar, this meeting is crucial. Even if the status quo is a given, it’s Powell’s remarks that will set the tone. Will he leave the door open for a rate cut soon? Or, on the contrary, signal that inflation remains a threat?
The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1688. The slightest dovish signal could send the greenback tumbling. Conversely, a hawkish tone on inflation would support the dollar against the euro and the British pound, which is trading at 1.3492 against the dollar.
On the commodities front, gold remains above $4,600 per ounce. Precious metals are highly sensitive to Fed decisions: high rates weigh on gold (which yields nothing), while low rates boost it.
📊 Our view
For us, this meeting is a non-event from a technical standpoint. The decision to keep rates steady is already priced in.
What matters is Powell’s closing remarks. If he adopts a conciliatory tone and hints at future rate cuts without strict conditions, the dollar will take a hit. The euro could rise toward 1.18, and gold could break through $4,700. Conversely, if he sticks to a hard line (persistent inflation, solid growth), the greenback will rebound. We lean toward the first option: Powell has an interest in leaving a more dovish Fed for his successor. In Europe, the ECB already began its rate-cutting cycle in March, which gives the euro a relative advantage if the Fed also shifts to an accommodative stance.
We see the dollar under pressure in the short term. For French traders: watch the EUR/USD above 1.17, and favor gold as a hedge if Powell opens the door to rate cuts.
✅ Key Takeaway
- The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged this Thursday
- This is Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair
- Powell’s remarks will be closely scrutinized to anticipate future moves
- EUR/USD is trading around 1.1688, with gold above $4,620
- A dovish tone could weaken the dollar against the euro
What do you think? Will Powell hint that a rate cut is coming soon, or will he stand firm on inflation?
🔎 See also
For more in-depth analysis, check out all our economic insights on ActuTrading Economy 📈
Source: Fed, Business Insider
