Four months of blocking, a pro-Putin prime minister defeated in elections, and the deal is done. The European Union just validated on Thursday a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine, promised in December but blocked since by Viktor Orban. As a bonus, a twentieth package of sanctions against Moscow also passes. Unprecedented. 🇪🇺
🔍 What's happening?
On December 19, 2025, the leaders of the Twenty-Seven had agreed on this giant loan intended to finance Ukraine's war effort for 2026 and 2027. Except that Viktor Orban, close to Vladimir Putin, went back on his word a few days later.
His argument: Kyiv allegedly sabotaged the Druzhba pipeline that supplies Hungary with Russian oil via Ukrainian territory. This blockade paralyzed not only the loan but also the adoption of new sanctions against Russia, meant to mark the fourth anniversary of the invasion on February 24, 2022.
Things changed on April 12: Orban's severe defeat in Hungarian legislative elections. His replacement Peter Magyar, pro-European, opens the way. In parallel, the Ukrainian pipeline operator announces the resumption of deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia. Everything was unblocked in a few days.
💡 Why does it matter?
For currency markets, this massive unblocking changes the game for the euro. A flow of 90 billion spread over two years is a European budgetary injection that indirectly supports demand for euros and European equipment. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1691 as we write.
More broadly, this loan and this twentieth sanctions package strengthen European cohesion against Russia. Orban's defeat shows that Hungarian voters had had enough of pro-Russian isolation. A major political turning point for Eastern Europe, which affects traders' perception of geopolitical risk.
📊 Our take
For us, it's a clear bullish signal for the euro in the medium term. The end of the Hungarian blockade proves that the EU can take a stand when a member state abuses its veto.
This 90 billion loan strengthens European credibility on the international stage and shows that Brussels keeps its commitments despite internal turbulence. For the French trader, it's a more stable environment for trading EUR/USD without fear of a major political crisis within the EU. The resumption of the Druzhba pipeline also removes an energy tension factor that was weighing on Central European economies. We're now watching Moscow's reaction and the concrete impact of this twentieth sanctions package on Russian trade flows. If Putin retaliates with new cuts in energy supplies, the ruble could fall further against the dollar and euro.
We anticipate a gradual appreciation of the euro against the dollar in the coming weeks. For the FR trader: take advantage of this momentum to play EUR/USD to the upside, with tight stops below 1.16 as long as the Fed remains cautious on rates.
✅ Key takeaways
- The EU finally validates 90 billion euros for Ukraine
- Orban beaten, his pro-European replacement unblocks everything
- Twentieth package of sanctions against Russia also adopted
- Bullish signal for the euro in the medium term
And what do you think? Does this unblocking change your vision on EUR/USD for the coming months, or are you staying cautious as long as the Fed doesn't move?
🔎 Also read
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Source: European Council, financial press
