Brent crude jumps to 99.78 USD, WTI to 94.36 USD. All of this in a single trading session, after Trump announced he would not extend the ceasefire with Iran and that the US military was ready to intervene if negotiations failed. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally ensures 20% of global oil and LNG supply, sees only three ships pass through in 24 hours. Unprecedented. 🛢️
🔍 What's happening?
Trump made it crystal clear that he had no intention of extending the ceasefire with Tehran. Immediate result: Brent surges 4.30 USD (or 4.5%) to reach 99.78 USD per barrel Tuesday in early afternoon US time. WTI does even better with a gain of 4.75 USD (+5.3%) to 94.36 USD.
Pakistan confirms there is still no trace of Iran at last-minute peace talks. Meanwhile, US forces seized a massive Iranian oil tanker at sea, just 24 hours before the ceasefire expires. Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains almost completely disrupted, with only three ships that dared use the waterway in the last 24 hours according to maritime traffic data.
💡 Why does this matter?
We're talking about 20% of global oil and LNG supply that normally transits through this strait. When this artery becomes blocked, prices skyrocket mechanically. The European Union has even had to issue directives to airlines on managing slots and passenger rights in case of jet fuel shortages.
Germany is monitoring the situation closely even though its Economy Minister Katherina Reiche assures that jet fuel supply is not threatened for now, with refineries adapting to increased demand. On the Russian side, the Druzhba pipeline that transports oil to Europe should resume according to Ukrainian president Zelensky, who is now banking on a 90 billion aid program. In the United States, retail sales are rising despite the spike in gas prices caused by the Iran war.
📊 Our take
We're clearly in a geopolitical escalation that leaves no room for doubt. Trump is playing hardball.
For us, the bullish move in oil still has potential as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Three ships in 24 hours is almost nothing. If negotiations fail definitively and the US military intervenes as Trump suggests, we can easily see Brent test 105 USD or higher. The fundamentals are there: supply is cut off on a critical trade route, demand remains strong in the US despite rising prices, and tensions are escalating rather than cooling. On the European side, the AMF and regulators are closely monitoring the impact on oil derivatives markets, especially with volatility exploding. For the French trader, this is the time to be particularly vigilant about spreads and margin calls if you're positioned on WTI or Brent.
We remain bullish on oil short-term as long as the situation stays tense in the strait. For French traders: if you want to go long, do it with tight stops, volatility can trap you quickly in case of a surprise reversal in negotiations.
✅ Key takeaways
- Brent at 99.78 USD (+4.5%), WTI at 94.36 USD (+5.3%)
- Strait of Hormuz almost paralyzed, only three ships in 24 hours
- Trump refuses to extend ceasefire, US military on alert
- 20% of global oil/LNG supply at stake
What do you think? Are you going long on oil or do you prefer to stay out of this geopolitical volatility?
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