On Sunday, April 5, 2026, OPEC+ met by videoconference for what many describe as the most eagerly awaited decision since 2020. The verdict: a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day from May. On paper, it looks like a classic bearish signal. Except that, in practice, Brent remained stuck around $109, at levels not seen since 2022. Welcome to a market where the rules have changed. 🚀
🔍 What's going on?
Let's take it from the top. The eight key countries of the enlarged cartel (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) have decided to continue the course announced in March: to add 206,000 b/d to their quotas for May. This is technically the second stage in the gradual dismantling of the 1.65 million b/d of voluntary cuts in place since 2023.
Except that this announcement comes against a bewildering backdrop. The Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 20% of the world's supply normally transits, has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since March 15. According to the latest tracking, zero ships are using the conventional route. Iran has set up a selective "Larak corridor" that lets through a few Chinese, Russian and allied tankers for a yuan toll - 62 passages traced since March 13. Alongside this, 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels.
The result on prices: Brent is trading around $109, with WTI even crossing $112 on April 2-3, its biggest daily gain since the start of the crisis (+8 to 11% in a single session after Trump's televised address threatening military escalation in 2-3 weeks). Goldman Sachs has just raised its Brent 2026 forecast to an average of $85, while warning that oil could exceed 2008's all-time high of $147 if the situation persists. JP Morgan is even talking about $150 by mid-May if Hormuz remains blocked.
💡 Why does this matter?
Because this OPEC+ rise reveals something embarrassing for the cartel: its production decisions have become partially theoretical. As one analyst quoted by Euronews sums it up perfectly, "oil can't be exported until the Strait of Hormuz opens". Iraq and Kuwait have already begun shutting down wells, not by choice, but because they can no longer physically export. Saudi Arabia may well announce an additional 500,000 b/d: while the Petroline (East-West) pipeline to Yanbu is already running at full capacity (4.8 million b/d), any extra barrels remain stuck in the country.
The 206,000 b/d added represent less than 2% of the barrels taken off the market by the closure of Hormuz (estimated at 17.8 million b/d). It's the kind of move that feels like a Band-Aid on a broken leg. And the market understood it perfectly - hence the total absence of any bearish reaction on Brent to the announcement.
The other angle to bear in mind: the geopolitical risk premium built into current prices is estimated at between $12 and $18 per barrel. This is not speculation, it reflects a real physical uncertainty about supply. As long as Hormuz remains closed, this premium won't go away, no matter what OPEC says in videoconferences.
📊 Our view
On this issue, we're in a rather rare configuration where the fundamental factor ("OPEC+ increases prod") should drive prices down, but where the geopolitical factor totally overwhelms it. This is the kind of market where you have to resist the temptation to play the classic mean reversion.
As far as tactical positions are concerned, two things stand out. First, shorter Brent to $109 betting on a return to $80 is suicidal until Hormuz reopens. The slightest tweet from Trump, the slightest Iranian strike on a tanker, and you take $8-10 in the face in two hours. The risk/reward is completely asymmetrical on the wrong side.
Then, and this is more subtle: the day a serious ceasefire is announced, expect Brent to make a massive comeback towards $75-80 in a few sessions. JP Morgan initially saw Brent at $60 on average 2026 before the war, against a backdrop of structural oversupply and OPEC+ rises. This thesis hasn't disappeared, it's just been put on pause. This is what makes the game interesting for those with strong nerves: long positioning on oil while the crisis lasts, and ultra-rapid switching at the slightest credible de-escalation.
For European energy stocks (TotalEnergies, Shell, BP), it's a blessed period that won't last forever. We're cashing in the dividends, reaping the capital gains, but we're still ready to lighten up.
✅ To remember
Brent around $109/barrel, highest levels since 2022
WTI above $112 after Trump address on April 2-3
OPEP+ announced +206,000 b/d for May (April 5 meeting)
This increase represents less than 2% of volumes withdrawn by Hormuz closure
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since March 15 (17,8 mb/d disrupted)
Goldman Sachs: Brent average 2026 raised to 85,riskjusqu′aˋ147, risk up to 147 ,riskjusqu′aˋ147+
JP Morgan: potential $150 by mid-May if crisis persists
How are you playing this market? Do you stay long on energy as long as Hormuz is closed, or do you start scaling shorts betting on a de-escalation? Timing is everything.
🔎 Also to be read
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