Oil is crystallizing around a critical level: WTI at $110.90 and Brent at $109.53. We're not seeing an explosion in prices, but a fragile equilibrium suspended on Trump's threats against Iran. 🛢️
🔍 What's going on?
Donald Trump issued an ultimatum on Sunday: strike Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz by midnight GMT on Wednesday. Result: at the start of the session, WTI climbed to $115.48 and Brent to $111.89, approaching the highs reached since the start of the American and Israeli offensive.
.But then came the turnaround: sources close to the negotiations claimed that the United States, Iran and mediators were discussing a 45-day truce. The market believed it, at least partially. Prices moderated slightly as the day progressed, reflecting cautious relief without any real conviction.
The market believed, at least partially.💡 Why does it matter?
The Strait of Hormuz ordinarily accounts for 20% of the world's oil and natural gas production - you quickly understand what's at stake. Yet this strait has been almost completely closed for over a month. Every bellicose statement from Trump sends shivers through the market, every rumor of trading offers a temporary respite.
.For you crude trades, it's simple: we remain in a state of uncertainty. No scenario is totally listened to by the market. Analysts like Lloyd Chan (MUFG) and Stephen Innes (SPI Asset Management) note that the probability of a credible agreement remains very low in the short term. You are faced with a market that is aware of the danger, but not yet convinced that the danger will materialize.
📊 Our opinion
We're in short-term bearish territory, but with solid walls of support. Prices hovering around $110 reflect containable volatility: this is neither collapse nor explosion. Trump's threats are real, but the market has already priced them in. If Teheran reopens the Strait, the correction will be dry. If Trump strikes, we'll revert to $115-120 quickly.
We think the real direction depends on what happens at midnight GMT on Wednesday. Before that, remember to place your stops rigorously: we're not dealing with a placated market, but a market in suspense. It's the difference between cautious and dangerous.
✅ To remember
- WTI and Brent hover around $110, between relief and tension.
- Trump ultimatum Wednesday midnight: market awaits concrete response.
- Strait of Hormuz closed for a month: 20% of world oil at stake.
What do you think?Do you really believe in negotiations, or would you rather position yourself for short-term escalation?
🔎 Also to be read
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