David Morgan has just put forward a numerical projection that is causing much debate: six weeks of stagnation in precious metals, followed by a potential explosion in prices. His analysis is based on a simple equation: the Strait of Hormuz is faltering, the world's oil depends on this zone, and any prolonged blockage triggers a food and energy cascade. Never before seen. ⚡
🔍 What's going on?
Morgan breaks a myth: geopolitical crises don't cause gold to rise immediately. Currently around $4,772, the yellow metal is going through a classic consolidation phase. Markets are digesting complexity: liquidity, speculative flows, investor psychology. This lateralization serves to transfer assets from panicked sellers to strategic buyers.
.The expert is betting on a maximum six-week horizon before a major repositioning. In his view, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, gold is silently building up its bullish pressure. Fundamentals deteriorate while prices stagnate: it's precisely this divergence that creates the best entry points.
💡 Why does it matter?
Because energy remains the backbone of everything. Morgan insists: a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts fertilizers, agricultural diesel and global supply chains. Food shortages become a reality when oil is no longer available. Gold then becomes the only asset truly decoupled from energy chaos.
For French traders, this analysis counts double. Europe imports its energy massively, and any oil crisis hits our economies first. Euro-denominated gold could outperform the XAU/USD even more violently if the ECB remains on the sidelines while the Fed tightens.
For French traders, this analysis counts for two.
📊 Our opinion
Morgan is right about one thing: weak hands always sell too soon. This consolidation phase serves exactly that purpose.
We share his analysis on delayed timing. Precious metals never react instantly to geopolitical tensions. History shows that the real explosions come after several weeks of frustrating lateralisation, when everyone has given up on the idea of a rise. The Strait of Hormuz concentrates 21% of the world's oil transported by sea. Any prolonged closure mechanically triggers a reassessment of systemic risk. Gold then becomes a safe haven by default, not by choice. For the French trader, keep an eye on how the AMF and ECB react to energy tensions: any European monetary easing will amplify gold's rise in euros.
.If Morgan aims right on his six weeks, we should see a major breakout at the end of May. For the FR trader: gradually accumulate on each pullback, with tight stops below $4,700. The risk/reward asymmetry is clearly leaning bullish.
✅ To remember
- Six weeks of consolidation anticipated before gold's potential explosion
- Strait of Hormuz key to global energy and food reading
- Silent accumulation phase before systemic risk reassessment
What do you think?Do you believe Morgan's timing, or do you think this consolidation could last much longer?
🔎 Also to be read
To go further, find all our Commodities analyses on ActuTrading Commodities 📈
