🔍 What's going on?
Reuters released a piece of news on Sunday evening that changed everything for the risk markets: a ceasefire plan negotiated by Pakistan is said to be on the table, with a 45-day pause in the fighting and the reopening of the Strait at stake. The immediate result at the Asian opening: Bitcoin climbed from $67,291 (Sunday close) to a peak above $69,800, according to CoinDesk data. Ethereum follows suit with +5%, Solana +3%, the CoinDesk 20 Index in the green.
But let's face it: this rebound comes against a particularly ugly backdrop for BTC. Q1 ended with a -22%, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, and some analysts were even talking of a possible sixth red month - unheard of in previous cycles. The October 2025 ATH at $126,198 seems a long way off. At $69,700, we're still some 45% below that all-time high.
On the ETF side, the picture is more mixed than the headlines suggest. March marked a real turning point with $1.32 billion in net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs, ending four consecutive months of outflows. BlackRock IBIT dominated as usual. But - and here's where it stings - April flows abruptly decelerated to just 69.6 million on the month to date, and April 1 even recorded 173.7 million net outflows in one fell swoop. In short, the institutional blows hot and cold.
💡 Why it matters
What's at stake here goes far beyond the question of whether we'll see $70k again this week. It's the reading of the Bitcoin narrative in 2026 that's being replayed.
For months, the prevailing thesis was simple: spot ETFs would absorb supply, the institutional would push BTC towards $150k or even more. Except that the reality is uglier. Bitcoin ETFs attracted 18.7 billion in Q1 2026, which isn't ridiculous - but gold, over the same period, sucked in 44.4 billion in institutional flows. When an asset is supposed to be "digital gold" but real gold captures three times as much capital during a geopolitical crisis, there's a question to be asked about BTC's safe-haven status.
The other troubling element: the average cost of ETF investors is around 84,000,whereastheprixactualestaˋ69700, while the current price is at 69,700 ,whereastheprixactualestaˋ69700. This means that the majority of institutional entrants are making a latent loss of around 17%. This "psychological resistance" around $84k is going to weigh on the slightest bounce - every attempt to rally is likely to be met with a wave of sellers who just want to get out at breakeven.
The prediction markets are under no illusions either: the probability of a $100k Bitcoin before June is quoted at around 0% on the main platforms. Zero. For an asset that was at $126k six months ago, that's a cold shower.
📊 Our opinion
Honestly, we're divided. Monday's rebound is technically sound: rising volume, RSI breaking out of the oversold zone, bullish signals on the futures market, IBIT regaining some color. And if the Strait of Hormuz really does reopen, the oil/inflation effect will loosen, giving oxygen back to all risky assets - crypto included.
But you don't buy a ceasefire by tweet. Tehran has already made it clear that it won't reopen the Straits until a more definitive agreement is reached, and we saw in March how these negotiations can get bogged down in a matter of hours. The "relief bounce that runs out of steam around $65k" scenario remains totally on the table.
For tactical positions, we'd look more at:
A clear break above $72,000 as a first validation signal
The $84,000 zone as a major psychological ceiling (the famous ETF cost basis)
The $67,000 support not to be lost, otherwise back towards $60k conceivable
We're not in a market where we're taking long leverage bets. This is a market of scalping and tight risk management. Weak hands have already capitulated in February-March, strong hands are waiting for confirmation.
✅ To remember
Bitcoin around $69,700, +3.58% over 24h
Catalyst: possible US-Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Q1 2026 closed at -22%, further away from ATH at $126,198 (Oct. 2025)
March ETF flows: $1.32bn (rebound) - April ETF flows: only +$69.6m (running out of steam)
Average cost basis ETF investors: ~$84,000 (major psychological resistance)
Prediction markets: 0% chance for $100k before June
Technical levels: resistance 72k,ceiling84k, ceiling 84k ,ceiling84k, critical support $67k
What are you playing on this bounce? Do you believe in it enough to go long again, or are you wisely waiting for the market to really choose its direction above $72k?
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